Theory
Adoption latency score
This note shows how to estimate how long adoption will take, so a reader can plan around institutional clocks instead of assuming they disappear. The estimate covers three points: first use, repeat use, and routine use, with the source, range and confidence attached to each. Estimate the time from first evidence to first use, repeat use, and routine use without pretending institutional clocks disappear.
Factors
Estimate evidence, guideline, budget, procurement, reimbursement, committee, integration, training, legal, security, patient, and regulatory time.
Confidence
Attach the source, range, dependency, and confidence to each estimate. Separate work that can be compressed from fixed institutional cycles.
Use
Compare the adoption clock with available capital, rights life, market movement, and the time at which evidence becomes stale.